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Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol — J1 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
5/3/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 11Machida Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Machida Zelvia41%
×Draw24%
Kashiwa Reysol35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.62
Kashiwa Reysol
1.46

Machida Zelvia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
2.16
Kashiwa Reysol
1.77

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.14
Kashiwa Reysol
1.08

finishing

Machida Zelvia-0.36scores less
Kashiwa Reysol+0.23scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
65%
Machida Zelvia or Kashiwa Reysol
76%
Draw or Kashiwa Reysol
59%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
21%
Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
80%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
48%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
22%
Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
77%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
43%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
55%
Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.14 · 5 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 2.16 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.62

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.77 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
41%
level
24%
Kashiwa Reysol scores more
35%

Machida Zelvia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Machida Zelvia 2–0 Kashiwa Reysol

Machida Zelvia beat Kashiwa Reysol 2-0 in J1 League on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Machida Gion Stadium in Tokyo.