Machida Zelvia vs JEF United Chiba

Machida Zelvia

Preview

11:00

JEF United Chiba

2/13/2027

J1 League · Round 21Machida GION Stadium

Big match

51%

Machida Zelvia

model favours

51%25%24%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Machida Zelvia51%

×Draw25%

JEF United Chiba24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machida ZelviaExpected goals in this matchJEF United Chiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.06

Machida Zelvia

1.65

JEF United Chiba

1.06

Machida Zelvia creates 56% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 9 away

1.41

creates per match

1.11

1.00

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Machida Zelvia

1.41

JEF United Chiba

1.11

allows per match

Machida Zelvia

1.00

JEF United Chiba

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

JEF United Chiba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

JEF United Chiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw

76%

Machida Zelvia or JEF United Chiba

75%

Draw or JEF United Chiba

49%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

27%

JEF United Chiba wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

81%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

49%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

23%

JEF United Chiba 1+ goals

65%

JEF United Chiba 2+ goals

29%

JEF United Chiba 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

68%

JEF United Chiba (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 44 matches

JEF United Chiba away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.41 + JEF United Chiba defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

JEF United Chiba attack 1.11 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more

51%

level

25%

JEF United Chiba scores more

24%

Machida Zelvia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

JEF United Chiba score first in only 7% of matches
70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
35% of Machida Zelvia’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Machida Zelvia

Defensively solid

JEF United Chiba

Balanced

45%Possession47%

78%Pass accuracy79%

12.9Shots10.1

1.63xGBiggest gap1.13

Machida ZelviaJEF United Chiba

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4

Machida Zelvia

3

Draws

3

JEF United Chiba

Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 50%

2–02–11–32–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Zelvia

DDWDD

Chiba

LDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff