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Machida Zelvia vs FC Tokyo — J1 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
Preview
10:00
FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
5/15/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 35Machida GION Stadium
Big match
53%
Machida Zelvia
model favours
53%23%24%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Machida Zelvia53%
×Draw23%
FC Tokyo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.89
FC Tokyo
1.21

Machida Zelvia creates 56% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
2.16
FC Tokyo
1.28

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.14
FC Tokyo
1.62

finishing

Machida Zelvia-0.36scores less
FC Tokyo-0.28scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

FC Tokyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
76%
Machida Zelvia or FC Tokyo
77%
Draw or FC Tokyo
47%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
30%
FC Tokyo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
85%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
56%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
29%
FC Tokyo 1+ goals
70%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
34%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
69%
FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.14 · 5 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 2.16 + FC Tokyo defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.89

FC Tokyo attack 1.28 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
53%
level
23%
FC Tokyo scores more
24%

Machida Zelvia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Machida Zelvia 3 vs FC Tokyo 2
  • Style contrast — Machida Zelvia play Defensively solid, FC Tokyo Attack-heavy
  • 35% of Machida Zelvia’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Machida Zelvia
Defensively solid
FC Tokyo
Attack-heavy
45%PossessionBiggest gap50%
78%Pass accuracy80%
12.9Shots13.9
1.63xG1.73
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Machida ZelviaFC Tokyo

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

3
Machida Zelvia
2
Draws
2
FC Tokyo
Avg goals: 1.6BTTS: 14%
0–00–30–00–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Zelvia
DDWDD
Tokyo
LDLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Machida Zelvia host FC Tokyo

May 15, 2027: Machida Zelvia take on FC Tokyo in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Machida Zelvia host FC Tokyo at Machida GION Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.