Machida Zelvia 3–0 FC Tokyo: Result & Stats

Machida Zelvia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Tokyo

11/9/2024

J1 League · Round 36Japan National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Machida Zelvia53%

×Draw23%

FC Tokyo24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machida ZelviaExpected goals in this matchFC Tokyo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.21

Machida Zelvia

1.89

FC Tokyo

1.21

Machida Zelvia creates 56% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.16

creates per match

1.28

1.14

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Machida Zelvia

2.16

FC Tokyo

1.28

allows per match

Machida Zelvia

1.14

FC Tokyo

1.62

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Machida Zelvia-0.36scores less

FC Tokyo-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

FC Tokyo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw

76%

Machida Zelvia or FC Tokyo

77%

Draw or FC Tokyo

47%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

30%

FC Tokyo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

85%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

56%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

29%

FC Tokyo 1+ goals

70%

FC Tokyo 2+ goals

34%

FC Tokyo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

69%

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.14 · 5 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 2.16 + FC Tokyo defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.89

FC Tokyo attack 1.28 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more

53%

level

23%

FC Tokyo scores more

24%

Machida Zelvia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff