Maccabi Yavne 1–1 Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden

Maccabi Yavne

AET

1 – 1

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden

9/6/2019

State Cup · 5th RoundLod Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Maccabi Yavne64%

×Draw19%

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi YavneExpected goals in this matchHapoel Bik'at HaYarden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.17

Maccabi Yavne

2.40

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden

1.17

Maccabi Yavne creates 105% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

3.30

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Maccabi Yavne

3.30

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden

1.33

allows per match

Maccabi Yavne

1.00

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Yavne+0.00on par

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Yavne ↓

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Maccabi Yavne or draw

83%

Maccabi Yavne or Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden

81%

Draw or Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden

36%

Winning margin

Maccabi Yavne wins by 2+

42%

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Maccabi Yavne 1+ goals

91%

Maccabi Yavne 2+ goals

69%

Maccabi Yavne 3+ goals

42%

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 1+ goals

69%

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 2+ goals

33%

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Yavne (draw refunded)

79%

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Yavne at home — creates 3.30, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Yavne attack 3.30 + Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.40

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden attack 1.33 + Maccabi Yavne defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Maccabi Yavne scores more

64%

level

19%

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden scores more

17%

Maccabi Yavne at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Maccabi Yavne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff