Maccabi Tel Aviv 3–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva

Maccabi Tel Aviv

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hapoel Beer Sheva

I. Shahar 69'

O. Davidzada 33'

D. Turgeman 25'

5/18/2024

Ligat Ha'al · Championship Round - 8Bloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Maccabi Tel Aviv46%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Beer Sheva28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Tel AvivExpected goals in this matchHapoel Beer Sheva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.13

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.52

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.13

Maccabi Tel Aviv creates 35% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

2.04

creates per match

1.45

0.80

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Maccabi Tel Aviv

2.04

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.45

allows per match

Maccabi Tel Aviv

0.80

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Tel Aviv ↓

Hapoel Beer Sheva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw

72%

Maccabi Tel Aviv or Hapoel Beer Sheva

74%

Draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva

54%

Winning margin

Maccabi Tel Aviv wins by 2+

23%

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Maccabi Tel Aviv 1+ goals

78%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 2+ goals

45%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 3+ goals

20%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals

68%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals

31%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Tel Aviv (draw refunded)

62%

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Tel Aviv at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.80 · 111 matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Tel Aviv attack 2.04 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.45 + Maccabi Tel Aviv defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Maccabi Tel Aviv scores more

46%

level

26%

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more

28%

Maccabi Tel Aviv at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Maccabi Tel Aviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Milson

Maccabi Tel Aviv · M

8.2

Match Events

1'

Miguel Vitor

16'

O. Dadia

25'

D. Turgeman↳ D. Biton

33'

O. Davidzada↳ Milson

46'

I. Shahar← O. Davida

46'

R. Gordana← I. Oulad Omar

46'

I. Madmon← A. Turgeman

46'

M. Levi← O. Dadia

62'

A. Ganah← A. Sefer

65'

E. Zahavi← D. Biton

65'

J. van Overeem← E. Kartsev

69'

I. Shahar↳ Milson

70'

M. Baltaxa← O. Davidzada

70'

R. Hatuel← Hélder Lopes

84'

Y. Cohen← D. Turgeman

Shots

Statistics

MaccabiHapoel

Overview

23Total Shots3

23Fouls3

Shots

23Total Shots3

9On Target1

7Off Target2

7Blocked0

Passing

488Accurate Passes194

Discipline

23Fouls3