Maccabi Tel Aviv 1–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva

Maccabi Tel Aviv

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hapoel Beer Sheva

2/24/2024

Ligat Ha'al · Round 23Bloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Maccabi Tel Aviv48%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Beer Sheva27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Tel AvivExpected goals in this matchHapoel Beer Sheva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.05

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.50

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.05

Maccabi Tel Aviv creates 43% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 126 away

1.99

creates per match

1.38

0.72

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.99

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.38

allows per match

Maccabi Tel Aviv

0.72

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Tel Aviv ↓

Hapoel Beer Sheva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw

73%

Maccabi Tel Aviv or Hapoel Beer Sheva

74%

Draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva

52%

Winning margin

Maccabi Tel Aviv wins by 2+

24%

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Maccabi Tel Aviv 1+ goals

78%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 2+ goals

44%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 3+ goals

19%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals

65%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals

28%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Tel Aviv (draw refunded)

64%

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Tel Aviv at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.72 · 126 matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.01 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Tel Aviv attack 1.99 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.38 + Maccabi Tel Aviv defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Maccabi Tel Aviv scores more

48%

level

26%

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more

27%

Maccabi Tel Aviv at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Maccabi Tel Aviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff