Maccabi Netanya 1–5 Maccabi Tel Aviv

Maccabi Netanya

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Maccabi Tel Aviv

2/19/2024

Ligat Ha'al · Round 22Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Maccabi Netanya28%

×Draw25%

Maccabi Tel Aviv48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi NetanyaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Tel Aviv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.61

Maccabi Netanya

1.17

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.61

Maccabi Tel Aviv creates 38% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 125 away

1.37

creates per match

1.92

1.30

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Maccabi Netanya

1.37

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.92

allows per match

Maccabi Netanya

1.30

Maccabi Tel Aviv

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par

Maccabi Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Netanya ↓

Maccabi Tel Aviv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Maccabi Netanya or draw

52%

Maccabi Netanya or Maccabi Tel Aviv

75%

Draw or Maccabi Tel Aviv

72%

Winning margin

Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+

11%

Maccabi Tel Aviv wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals

69%

Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals

33%

Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals

11%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 1+ goals

80%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 2+ goals

48%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)

37%

Maccabi Tel Aviv (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Netanya at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 122 matches

Maccabi Tel Aviv away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.97 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Netanya attack 1.37 + Maccabi Tel Aviv defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Maccabi Tel Aviv attack 1.92 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Maccabi Netanya scores more

28%

level

25%

Maccabi Tel Aviv scores more

48%

Maccabi Tel Aviv at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Maccabi Tel Aviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff