Maccabi Netanya 1–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva

Maccabi Netanya

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Beer Sheva

12/11/2023

Ligat Ha'al · Round 8Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Maccabi Netanya33%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Beer Sheva40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi NetanyaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Beer Sheva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.34

Maccabi Netanya

1.19

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.34

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 13% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 126 away

1.37

creates per match

1.38

1.30

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Maccabi Netanya

1.37

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.38

allows per match

Maccabi Netanya

1.30

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Netanya ↓

Hapoel Beer Sheva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Maccabi Netanya or draw

60%

Maccabi Netanya or Hapoel Beer Sheva

73%

Draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva

67%

Winning margin

Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+

14%

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals

70%

Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals

33%

Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals

12%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals

74%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals

39%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)

45%

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Netanya at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 122 matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.01 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Netanya attack 1.37 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.38 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Maccabi Netanya scores more

33%

level

27%

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more

40%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff