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Maccabi Netanya vs Bnei Sakhnin — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Maccabi Netanya
Maccabi Netanya
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bnei Sakhnin
Bnei Sakhnin
1/30/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 19Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Maccabi Netanya43%
×Draw27%
Bnei Sakhnin30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Netanya
1.37
Bnei Sakhnin
1.10

Maccabi Netanya creates 25% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 102 away

creates per match

Maccabi Netanya
1.37
Bnei Sakhnin
0.91

allows per match

Maccabi Netanya
1.30
Bnei Sakhnin
1.37

finishing

Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par
Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Netanya ↓

Bnei Sakhnin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Maccabi Netanya or draw
70%
Maccabi Netanya or Bnei Sakhnin
73%
Draw or Bnei Sakhnin
57%

Winning margin

Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+
20%
Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals
75%
Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals
40%
Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals
16%
Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals
67%
Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals
30%
Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)
59%
Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Netanya at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 122 matches

Bnei Sakhnin away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Netanya attack 1.37 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Bnei Sakhnin attack 0.91 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Maccabi Netanya scores more
43%
level
27%
Bnei Sakhnin scores more
30%

Maccabi Netanya at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Maccabi Netanya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Maccabi Netanya 0–1 Bnei Sakhnin

Bnei Sakhnin beat Maccabi Netanya 1-0 in Ligat Ha'al on January 30, 2024.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.