Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2–2 Hapoel Acre

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Acre

12/12/2023

Liga Leumit · Round 12Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa39%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Acre35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Kabilio JaffaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Acre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.31

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.41

Hapoel Acre

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 130 away

1.58

creates per match

1.07

1.55

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.58

Hapoel Acre

1.07

allows per match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.55

Hapoel Acre

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Hapoel Acre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa ↓

Hapoel Acre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or draw

65%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa or Hapoel Acre

74%

Draw or Hapoel Acre

61%

Winning margin

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+

18%

Hapoel Acre wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals

76%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals

41%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals

17%

Hapoel Acre 1+ goals

73%

Hapoel Acre 2+ goals

38%

Hapoel Acre 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)

53%

Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 74 matches

Hapoel Acre away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.58 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.41

Hapoel Acre attack 1.07 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more

39%

level

26%

Hapoel Acre scores more

35%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff