Maccabi Haifa vs Maccabi Tel Aviv — Ligat Ha'al 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 125+ matches
Maccabi Haifa41%
Maccabi Tel Aviv34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Maccabi Haifa creates 11% more chances
Season form · 125 home / 125 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Maccabi Haifa ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Maccabi Haifa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.92 · 125 matches
Maccabi Tel Aviv away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.97 · 125 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Maccabi Haifa attack 2.20 + Maccabi Tel Aviv defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.58
Maccabi Tel Aviv attack 1.92 + Maccabi Haifa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.42
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Maccabi Haifa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Maccabi Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Beitar JerusalemMaccabi Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel AvivMaccabi Haifa
Maccabi Netanya
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Haifa
Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Katamon
Ashdod
Maccabi Bnei RainaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Maccabi Haifa host Maccabi Tel Aviv on Monday, 5 February 2024 at 18:30. The match is part of the Ligat Ha'al 2019/2020 season.
Ligat Ha'al: Maccabi Haifa 2–0 Maccabi Tel Aviv
Maccabi Haifa beat Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-0 in Ligat Ha'al on February 5, 2024.
The match was played at Sammy Ofer Stadium in Haifa.