Maccabi Haifa 2–1 Hapoel Petah Tikva

Maccabi Haifa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Hapoel Petah Tikva

11/25/2023

Ligat Ha'al · Round 1Sammy Ofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Maccabi Haifa61%

×Draw21%

Hapoel Petah Tikva18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi HaifaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Petah Tikva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.01

Maccabi Haifa

2.03

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.01

Maccabi Haifa creates 101% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 35 away

2.20

creates per match

1.09

0.92

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Maccabi Haifa

2.20

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.09

allows per match

Maccabi Haifa

0.92

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Haifa ↓

Hapoel Petah Tikva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Maccabi Haifa or draw

82%

Maccabi Haifa or Hapoel Petah Tikva

79%

Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva

39%

Winning margin

Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+

37%

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals

87%

Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals

60%

Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals

33%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals

64%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals

27%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)

77%

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Haifa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.92 · 125 matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Haifa attack 2.20 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.03

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.09 + Maccabi Haifa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Maccabi Haifa scores more

61%

level

21%

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more

18%

Maccabi Haifa at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Maccabi Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff