Maccabi Bnei Raina 0–1 Bnei Sakhnin: Result & Stats

Maccabi Bnei Raina

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bnei Sakhnin

12/30/2023

Ligat Ha'al · Round 13Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Maccabi Bnei Raina33%

×Draw27%

Bnei Sakhnin40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Bnei RainaExpected goals in this matchBnei Sakhnin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.30

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1.16

Bnei Sakhnin

1.30

Bnei Sakhnin creates 12% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 102 away

0.94

creates per match

0.91

1.70

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Maccabi Bnei Raina

0.94

Bnei Sakhnin

0.91

allows per match

Maccabi Bnei Raina

1.70

Bnei Sakhnin

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Bnei Raina+0.00on par

Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Bnei Raina ↓

Bnei Sakhnin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Maccabi Bnei Raina or draw

60%

Maccabi Bnei Raina or Bnei Sakhnin

73%

Draw or Bnei Sakhnin

67%

Winning margin

Maccabi Bnei Raina wins by 2+

14%

Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Maccabi Bnei Raina 1+ goals

69%

Maccabi Bnei Raina 2+ goals

32%

Maccabi Bnei Raina 3+ goals

11%

Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals

73%

Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals

37%

Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Bnei Raina (draw refunded)

45%

Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Bnei Raina at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.70 · 67 matches

Bnei Sakhnin away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 0.94 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.16

Bnei Sakhnin attack 0.91 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Maccabi Bnei Raina scores more

33%

level

27%

Bnei Sakhnin scores more

40%

Bnei Sakhnin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bnei Sakhnin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff