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Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory — A-League 2018

Macarthur
Macarthur
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory
5/14/2021A-LeagueA-League · Round 21Campbelltown Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Macarthur38%
×Draw24%
Melbourne Victory38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macarthur
1.50
Melbourne Victory
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 109 away

creates per match

Macarthur
1.57
Melbourne Victory
1.36

allows per match

Macarthur
1.63
Melbourne Victory
1.44

finishing

Macarthur+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macarthur ↓

Melbourne Victory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Macarthur or draw
62%
Macarthur or Melbourne Victory
76%
Draw or Melbourne Victory
62%

Winning margin

Macarthur wins by 2+
18%
Melbourne Victory wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Macarthur 1+ goals
78%
Macarthur 2+ goals
44%
Macarthur 3+ goals
19%
Melbourne Victory 1+ goals
78%
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
44%
Melbourne Victory 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Macarthur (draw refunded)
50%
Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macarthur at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.63 · 79 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macarthur attack 1.57 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Melbourne Victory attack 1.36 + Macarthur defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Macarthur scores more
38%
level
24%
Melbourne Victory scores more
38%

Macarthur at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Macarthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Macarthur 3–1 Melbourne Victory

Macarthur beat Melbourne Victory 3-1 in A-League on May 14, 2021.

The match was played at Campbelltown Stadium in Sydney.