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Macarthur vs Melbourne City — A-League 2018

Macarthur
Macarthur
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Melbourne City
Melbourne City
3/19/2023A-LeagueA-League · Round 21Campbelltown Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Macarthur36%
×Draw24%
Melbourne City40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macarthur
1.51
Melbourne City
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 108 away

creates per match

Macarthur
1.57
Melbourne City
1.56

allows per match

Macarthur
1.63
Melbourne City
1.45

finishing

Macarthur+0.00on par
Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macarthur ↓

Melbourne City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Macarthur or draw
60%
Macarthur or Melbourne City
76%
Draw or Melbourne City
64%

Winning margin

Macarthur wins by 2+
17%
Melbourne City wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Macarthur 1+ goals
78%
Macarthur 2+ goals
44%
Macarthur 3+ goals
19%
Melbourne City 1+ goals
80%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
47%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Macarthur (draw refunded)
48%
Melbourne City (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macarthur at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.63 · 79 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.45 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macarthur attack 1.57 + Melbourne City defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.51

Melbourne City attack 1.56 + Macarthur defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Macarthur scores more
36%
level
24%
Melbourne City scores more
40%

Melbourne City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Macarthur 1–1 Melbourne City

Macarthur and Melbourne City drew 1-1 in A-League on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Campbelltown Stadium in Sydney.