Macarthur 1–1 Central Coast Mariners

Macarthur

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Central Coast Mariners

2/22/2024

AFC Cup · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Macarthur63%

×Draw21%

Central Coast Mariners17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacarthurExpected goals in this matchCentral Coast Mariners

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.96

Macarthur

2.06

Central Coast Mariners

0.96

Macarthur creates 115% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

3.63

creates per match

1.17

0.75

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Macarthur

3.63

Central Coast Mariners

1.17

allows per match

Macarthur

0.75

Central Coast Mariners

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macarthur+0.00on par

Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macarthur ↓

Central Coast Mariners →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Macarthur or draw

83%

Macarthur or Central Coast Mariners

79%

Draw or Central Coast Mariners

37%

Winning margin

Macarthur wins by 2+

39%

Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Macarthur 1+ goals

87%

Macarthur 2+ goals

61%

Macarthur 3+ goals

34%

Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals

62%

Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals

25%

Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Macarthur (draw refunded)

79%

Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macarthur at home — creates 3.63, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macarthur attack 3.63 + Central Coast Mariners defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.17 + Macarthur defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Macarthur scores more

63%

level

21%

Central Coast Mariners scores more

17%

Macarthur at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Macarthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff