Macara 3–1 Tecnico Universitario: Result & Stats

Macara

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tecnico Universitario

I. Ortigoza 90'

Á. Cazula 84'

R. Champang 43'

E. Carcelén 67'

5/22/2022

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 14Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Macara45%

×Draw28%

Tecnico Universitario27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacaraExpected goals in this matchTecnico Universitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.95

Macara

1.31

Tecnico Universitario

0.95

Macara creates 38% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 127 away

1.24

creates per match

0.86

1.03

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Macara

1.24

Tecnico Universitario

0.86

allows per match

Macara

1.03

Tecnico Universitario

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macara+0.00on par

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Tecnico Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Macara or draw

73%

Macara or Tecnico Universitario

72%

Draw or Tecnico Universitario

55%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+

21%

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals

73%

Macara 2+ goals

38%

Macara 3+ goals

14%

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

61%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

25%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)

62%

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.03 · 118 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.24 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.86 + Macara defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Macara scores more

45%

level

28%

Tecnico Universitario scores more

27%

Macara at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

15'

18'

31'

43'

46'

P. Mancilla← J. Caicedo

48'

J. Blanco← A. Villalva

51'

51'

52'

54'

55'

I. Ortigoza← R. Champang

55'

Thiago← L. Estupiñán

63'

Walter Chavez

64'

Bismark Sánchez← E. Rodríguez

67'

E. Carcelén↳ E. Patta

72'

J. Valencia← F. Mejía

75'

F. Mina← F. Mora

79'

Jean Carlos Blanco

84'

Á. Cazula↳ M. Hernández

86'

Alvaro Gaston Cazula

90+2'

Iván Ortigoza

90'

I. Ortigoza↳ F. Mina

Shots

Statistics

MacaraTecnico

Overview

5Total Shots6

3Corners6

11Fouls20

Shots

5Total Shots6

5On Target3

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls20

4Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Macara vs Tecnico Universitario

Macara beat Tecnico Universitario 3-1 in Liga Pro on May 22, 2022.

Goals: R. Champang (43'), E. Carcelén (67'), Á. Cazula (84'), I. Ortigoza (90').

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.

Macara vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Macara vs Tecnico Universitario