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Macara vs LDU de Quito — Liga Pro 2026

Macara
Macara
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
Janner Corozo 79', 45'
Michael Estrada 49'
3/9/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 5Estadio Bellavista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Macara36%
×Draw28%
LDU de Quito36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macara
1.19
LDU de Quito
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 136 away

creates per match

Macara
1.24
LDU de Quito
1.37

allows per match

Macara
1.03
LDU de Quito
1.15

finishing

Macara+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Macara or draw
64%
Macara or LDU de Quito
72%
Draw or LDU de Quito
64%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+
15%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals
70%
Macara 2+ goals
33%
Macara 3+ goals
12%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
70%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
34%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)
50%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.03 · 118 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.24 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Macara defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Macara scores more
36%
level
28%
LDU de Quito scores more
36%

Macara at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Edison Vega
31'
Rodrigo Aguirre
31'
Kevin Minda
38'
Mario Rizotto
40'
Janner Corozo← Carlos Feraud
45'
Janner Corozo
49'
Michael Estrada
54'
Luis Chicaiza
60'
Kener Arce
61'
Jefferson Intriago← Christian Cruz
61'
José Ayoví← Julio Angulo
66'
Cristian Martínez← Kevin Minda
76'
Jose Cazares
79'
Janner Corozo↳ Michael Estrada
80'
Orlin Quinonez← Carlos Arboleda
81'
Flavio Ciampichetti← Michael Estrada

Possession

45%Macara

Shots

6Macara

Statistics

MacaraLDU
Overview
45%Possession55%
6Total Shots9
3Corners6
16Fouls17
Shots
6Total Shots9
3On Target4
3Off Target5
Passing
45%Possession55%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls17
2Yellow Cards5
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Macara vs LDU de Quito

Macara beat LDU de Quito 3-0 in Liga Pro on March 9, 2019.

Goals: Janner Corozo (45', 79'), Michael Estrada (49').

LDU de Quito controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista in Ambato.