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Macara vs Guayaquil City FC — Liga Pro 2026

Macara
Macara
Preview
20:00
Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
8/2/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 23Estadio Bellavista
Big match
51%
Macara
model favours
51%26%23%

Macara have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Macara51%
×Draw26%
Guayaquil City FC23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macara
1.49
Guayaquil City FC
0.90

Macara creates 66% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 95 away

creates per match

Macara
1.24
Guayaquil City FC
0.77

allows per match

Macara
1.03
Guayaquil City FC
1.74

finishing

Macara+0.00on par
Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Guayaquil City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Macara or draw
77%
Macara or Guayaquil City FC
74%
Draw or Guayaquil City FC
49%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+
26%
Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals
77%
Macara 2+ goals
44%
Macara 3+ goals
19%
Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
59%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
23%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)
69%
Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.03 · 118 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.74 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.24 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.49

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.77 + Macara defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Macara scores more
51%
level
26%
Guayaquil City FC scores more
23%

Macara at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Macara are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Macara score first in only 24% of matches
  • 71% of Macara’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 29% of Macara’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Macara
Defensively solid
Guayaquil City FC
Balanced
49%Possession49%
75%Pass accuracy77%
12.7ShotsBiggest gap6.7
1.29xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
MacaraGuayaquil City FC

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Macara
4
Draws
3
Guayaquil City FC
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 50%
1–20–02–00–21–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Macara
LWWWW
FC
DWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Macara vs Guayaquil City FC — Match Preview

Macara face Guayaquil City FC on August 2, 2026 in this Liga Pro fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Macara host Guayaquil City FC at Estadio Bellavista.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.