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Macara vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026

Macara
Macara
Preview
20:00
Emelec
Emelec
9/13/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 30Estadio Bellavista
Big match
41%
Macara
model favours
41%28%32%

Macara have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Macara41%
×Draw28%
Emelec32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macara
1.29
Emelec
1.10

Macara creates 17% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 131 away

creates per match

Macara
1.24
Emelec
1.18

allows per match

Macara
1.03
Emelec
1.33

finishing

Macara+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Macara or draw
68%
Macara or Emelec
72%
Draw or Emelec
59%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+
18%
Emelec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals
72%
Macara 2+ goals
37%
Macara 3+ goals
14%
Emelec 1+ goals
67%
Emelec 2+ goals
30%
Emelec 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)
56%
Emelec (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.03 · 118 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.24 + Emelec defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Emelec attack 1.18 + Macara defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Macara scores more
41%
level
28%
Emelec scores more
32%

Macara at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Macara are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Macara score first in only 24% of matches
  • 71% of Macara’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Emelec outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.8 expected)
  • Both teams score in only 29% of Macara’s matches
  • Macara win just 32% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Macara
Defensively solid
Emelec
Balanced
49%Possession50%
75%Pass accuracy78%
12.7Shots9.2
1.29xGBiggest gap0.75
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
MacaraEmelec

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Macara
3
Draws
4
Emelec
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 30%
0–22–03–01–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Macara
LWWWW
Emelec
WDDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Macara face Emelec (Liga Pro)

Liga Pro returns with Macara hosting Emelec. Match starts September 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Macara host Emelec at Estadio Bellavista.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.