Macara 2–2 Emelec: Result & Stats

Macara

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Emelec

J. Santacruz 89'

M. Orlando 26'

A. Zapata 34'

F. Barcelo 20'

3/16/2021

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Macara40%

×Draw26%

Emelec34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacaraExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.25

Macara

1.38

Emelec

1.25

Macara creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.67

creates per match

1.18

1.33

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Macara

1.67

Emelec

1.18

allows per match

Macara

1.33

Emelec

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macara+0.00on par

Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Macara or draw

66%

Macara or Emelec

74%

Draw or Emelec

60%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+

19%

Emelec wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals

75%

Macara 2+ goals

40%

Macara 3+ goals

16%

Emelec 1+ goals

71%

Emelec 2+ goals

36%

Emelec 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)

54%

Emelec (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.67 + Emelec defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.38

Emelec attack 1.18 + Macara defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Macara scores more

40%

level

26%

Emelec scores more

34%

Macara at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

B. Carabalí

Emelec · M

8.7

Match Events

16'

Richard Calderón

18'

Alexis Zapata

20'

F. Barcelo↳ B. Carabalí

24'

Bryan Hernández

26'

M. Orlando

30'

Segundo Portocarrero

34'

A. Zapata↳ B. Carabalí

45'

Bryan Sánchez

46'

I. Zambrano← R. Calderón

46'

J. Santacruz← B. Hernández

48'

John Santacruz

63'

R. Champang← M. Orlando

68'

F. Mina← E. Rodríguez

69'

J. Rojas← A. Zapata

70'

B. Cabezas← B. Carabalí

73'

Joao Rojas

78'

M. Duffard← P. Mancilla

81'

Facundo Barceló

81'

A. Cabeza← F. Barcelo

83'

Pedro Ortiz

85'

O. Bagüí← B. Sánchez

89'

J. Santacruz↳ A. Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MacaraEmelec

Overview

49%Possession51%

22Total Shots10

6Corners3

20Fouls20

Shots

22Total Shots10

9On Target4

7Off Target4

6Blocked2

12Inside Box5

10Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

339Total Passes363

273Accurate Passes281

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

20Fouls20

4Yellow Cards5

3Offsides3

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Macara 2–2 Emelec

Macara and Emelec drew 2-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 16, 2021.

Goals: F. Barcelo (20'), M. Orlando (26'), A. Zapata (34'), J. Santacruz (89').

Emelec controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 22.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.

Macara vs Emelec — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Macara 2–2 Emelec