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Macara vs El Nacional — Liga Pro 2026

Macara
Macara
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Nacional
El Nacional
3/9/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 2Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Macara44%
×Draw27%
El Nacional29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macara
1.38
El Nacional
1.06

Macara creates 30% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 91 away

creates per match

Macara
1.24
El Nacional
1.08

allows per match

Macara
1.03
El Nacional
1.51

finishing

Macara+0.00on par
El Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macara ↓

El Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Macara or draw
71%
Macara or El Nacional
73%
Draw or El Nacional
56%

Winning margin

Macara wins by 2+
21%
El Nacional wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Macara 1+ goals
75%
Macara 2+ goals
40%
Macara 3+ goals
16%
El Nacional 1+ goals
65%
El Nacional 2+ goals
29%
El Nacional 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Macara (draw refunded)
60%
El Nacional (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macara at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.03 · 118 matches

El Nacional away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macara attack 1.24 + El Nacional defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.38

El Nacional attack 1.08 + Macara defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Macara scores more
44%
level
27%
El Nacional scores more
29%

Macara at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Macara 1–0 El Nacional

Macara beat El Nacional 1-0 in Liga Pro on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.