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M'saken vs Kalaâ Sport — Cup 2019

M'saken
M'saken
FT
1 – 0
Kalaâ Sport
Kalaâ Sport
1/15/2023CupCup · Qualifying RoundStade du rugby M'saken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

M'saken69%
×Draw18%
Kalaâ Sport13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

M'saken
2.29
Kalaâ Sport
0.88

M'saken creates 160% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

M'saken
2.57
Kalaâ Sport
0.75

allows per match

M'saken
1.00
Kalaâ Sport
2.00

finishing

M'saken+0.00on par
Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

M'saken ↓

Kalaâ Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

M'saken or draw
87%
M'saken or Kalaâ Sport
82%
Draw or Kalaâ Sport
31%

Winning margin

M'saken wins by 2+
45%
Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

M'saken 1+ goals
90%
M'saken 2+ goals
66%
M'saken 3+ goals
40%
Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals
59%
Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals
22%
Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

M'saken (draw refunded)
84%
Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

M'saken at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Kalaâ Sport away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

M'saken attack 2.57 + Kalaâ Sport defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

Kalaâ Sport attack 0.75 + M'saken defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

M'saken scores more
69%
level
18%
Kalaâ Sport scores more
13%

M'saken at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "M'saken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: M'saken vs Kalaâ Sport

M'saken beat Kalaâ Sport 1-0 in Cup on January 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du rugby M'saken in Masakin, Tunisia.