Mławianka Mława 1–3 Warta Sieradz: Result & Stats

Mławianka Mława

FT

1 – 3

Warta Sieradz

11/18/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion MOSiR Mlawa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Mławianka Mława45%

×Draw23%

Warta Sieradz32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mławianka MławaExpected goals in this matchWarta Sieradz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.48

Mławianka Mława

1.78

Warta Sieradz

1.48

Mławianka Mława creates 20% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

2.15

creates per match

1.28

1.68

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Mławianka Mława

2.15

Warta Sieradz

1.28

allows per match

Mławianka Mława

1.68

Warta Sieradz

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mławianka Mława+0.00on par

Warta Sieradz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mławianka Mława ↓

Warta Sieradz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Mławianka Mława or draw

68%

Mławianka Mława or Warta Sieradz

77%

Draw or Warta Sieradz

55%

Winning margin

Mławianka Mława wins by 2+

24%

Warta Sieradz wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mławianka Mława 1+ goals

83%

Mławianka Mława 2+ goals

53%

Mławianka Mława 3+ goals

26%

Warta Sieradz 1+ goals

77%

Warta Sieradz 2+ goals

43%

Warta Sieradz 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Mławianka Mława (draw refunded)

58%

Warta Sieradz (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mławianka Mława at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Warta Sieradz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mławianka Mława attack 2.15 + Warta Sieradz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.78

Warta Sieradz attack 1.28 + Mławianka Mława defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mławianka Mława scores more

45%

level

23%

Warta Sieradz scores more

32%

Mławianka Mława at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mławianka Mława will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff