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Lyon W vs Montpellier W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Lyon W
Lyon W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Montpellier W
Montpellier W
11/10/2023Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 7Terrain d'honneur Gérard Houllier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Lyon W75%
×Draw14%
Montpellier W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyon W
2.83
Montpellier W
0.96

Lyon W creates 195% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 86 away

creates per match

Lyon W
4.02
Montpellier W
1.67

allows per match

Lyon W
0.26
Montpellier W
1.65

finishing

Lyon W+0.00on par
Montpellier W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon W ↓

Montpellier W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lyon W or draw
90%
Lyon W or Montpellier W
86%
Draw or Montpellier W
25%

Winning margin

Lyon W wins by 2+
55%
Montpellier W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Lyon W 1+ goals
94%
Lyon W 2+ goals
77%
Lyon W 3+ goals
53%
Montpellier W 1+ goals
62%
Montpellier W 2+ goals
25%
Montpellier W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lyon W (draw refunded)
88%
Montpellier W (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon W at home — creates 4.02, concedes 0.26 · 93 matches

Montpellier W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.65 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon W attack 4.02 + Montpellier W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.83

Montpellier W attack 1.67 + Lyon W defence 0.26 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Lyon W scores more
75%
level
14%
Montpellier W scores more
10%

Lyon W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feminine Division 1: Lyon W 5–0 Montpellier W

Lyon W beat Montpellier W 5-0 in Feminine Division 1 on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Terrain d'honneur Gérard Houllier in Décines-Charpieu.