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Lyon W vs Dijon W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Lyon W
Lyon W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dijon W
Dijon W
11/17/2023Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 8Terrain d'honneur Gérard Houllier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Lyon W84%
×Draw11%
Dijon W5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyon W
2.97
Dijon W
0.59

Lyon W creates 403% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 87 away

creates per match

Lyon W
4.02
Dijon W
0.93

allows per match

Lyon W
0.26
Dijon W
1.92

finishing

Lyon W+0.00on par
Dijon W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon W ↓

Dijon W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Lyon W or draw
95%
Lyon W or Dijon W
89%
Draw or Dijon W
16%

Winning margin

Lyon W wins by 2+
65%
Dijon W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Lyon W 1+ goals
95%
Lyon W 2+ goals
79%
Lyon W 3+ goals
56%
Dijon W 1+ goals
45%
Dijon W 2+ goals
12%
Dijon W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Lyon W (draw refunded)
95%
Dijon W (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon W at home — creates 4.02, concedes 0.26 · 93 matches

Dijon W away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.92 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon W attack 4.02 + Dijon W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.97

Dijon W attack 0.93 + Lyon W defence 0.26 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Lyon W scores more
84%
level
11%
Dijon W scores more
5%

Lyon W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lyon W 4 – 1 Dijon W

Lyon W beat Dijon W 4-1 in Feminine Division 1 on November 17, 2023.

The match was played at Terrain d'honneur Gérard Houllier in Décines-Charpieu.