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Lyon vs Strasbourg — Coupe de France 2018

Lyon
Lyonadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Strasbourg
Strasbourg
2/27/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Quarter-finalsGroupama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Lyon31%
×Draw22%
Strasbourg48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyon
1.59
Strasbourg
2.03

Strasbourg creates 28% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lyon
2.29
Strasbourg
2.70

allows per match

Lyon
1.36
Strasbourg
0.90

finishing

Lyon+0.00on par
Strasbourg+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon ↓

Strasbourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Lyon or draw
52%
Lyon or Strasbourg
78%
Draw or Strasbourg
69%

Winning margin

Lyon wins by 2+
14%
Strasbourg wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Lyon 1+ goals
80%
Lyon 2+ goals
47%
Lyon 3+ goals
21%
Strasbourg 1+ goals
87%
Strasbourg 2+ goals
60%
Strasbourg 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Lyon (draw refunded)
39%
Strasbourg (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Strasbourg away — creates 2.70, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon attack 2.29 + Strasbourg defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.59

Strasbourg attack 2.70 + Lyon defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lyon scores more
31%
level
22%
Strasbourg scores more
48%

Strasbourg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Strasbourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Lyon 0–0 Strasbourg

Lyon and Strasbourg drew 0-0 in Coupe de France on February 27, 2024.

The match was played at Groupama Stadium in Décines-Charpieu.