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Lyn W vs Haugesund W — Toppserien 2021

Lyn W
Lyn W
Preview
11:00
Haugesund W
Haugesund W
10/4/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 18Kringsja kunstgress
48%
Lyn W
model favours
48%23%29%
1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lyn W48%
×Draw23%
Haugesund W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyn W
1.83
Haugesund W
1.39

Lyn W creates 32% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lyn W
1.49
Haugesund W
1.33

allows per match

Lyn W
1.44
Haugesund W
2.17

finishing

Lyn W+0.00on par
Haugesund W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyn W ↓

Haugesund W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lyn W or draw
71%
Lyn W or Haugesund W
77%
Draw or Haugesund W
52%

Winning margin

Lyn W wins by 2+
26%
Haugesund W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lyn W 1+ goals
84%
Lyn W 2+ goals
54%
Lyn W 3+ goals
28%
Haugesund W 1+ goals
75%
Haugesund W 2+ goals
40%
Haugesund W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lyn W (draw refunded)
62%
Haugesund W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyn W at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 63 matches

Haugesund W away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyn W attack 1.49 + Haugesund W defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Haugesund W attack 1.33 + Lyn W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lyn W scores more
48%
level
23%
Haugesund W scores more
29%

Lyn W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lyn W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LDWLD
W
DWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lyn W vs Haugesund W — Match Preview

Lyn W face Haugesund W on October 4, 2026 in this Toppserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lyn W host Haugesund W at Kringsja kunstgress.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.