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Lyn W vs Hønefoss W — Toppserien 2021

Lyn W
Lyn W
Preview
11:00
Hønefoss W
Hønefoss W
9/26/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 17Kringsja kunstgress
59%
Lyn W
model favours
59%22%19%

70% of Hønefoss W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lyn W59%
×Draw22%
Hønefoss W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyn W
1.96
Hønefoss W
1.01

Lyn W creates 94% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 19 away

creates per match

Lyn W
1.49
Hønefoss W
0.58

allows per match

Lyn W
1.44
Hønefoss W
2.42

finishing

Lyn W+0.00on par
Hønefoss W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyn W ↓

Hønefoss W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lyn W or draw
81%
Lyn W or Hønefoss W
78%
Draw or Hønefoss W
41%

Winning margin

Lyn W wins by 2+
35%
Hønefoss W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lyn W 1+ goals
86%
Lyn W 2+ goals
58%
Lyn W 3+ goals
31%
Hønefoss W 1+ goals
64%
Hønefoss W 2+ goals
27%
Hønefoss W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lyn W (draw refunded)
76%
Hønefoss W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyn W at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 63 matches

Hønefoss W away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyn W attack 1.49 + Hønefoss W defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.96

Hønefoss W attack 0.58 + Lyn W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lyn W scores more
59%
level
22%
Hønefoss W scores more
19%

Lyn W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lyn W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Hønefoss W win just 13% against the top half (vs 42% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LDWLD
W
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lyn W vs Hønefoss W — Match Preview

Lyn W face Hønefoss W on September 26, 2026 in this Toppserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lyn W host Hønefoss W at Kringsja kunstgress.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.