Lviv 1–1 Oleksandria: Result & Stats

Lviv

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Oleksandria

Alvaro 87'

B. Myshenko 10'

2/29/2020

Premier League · Round 20Stadion Ukrajina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Lviv29%

×Draw27%

Oleksandria44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LvivExpected goals in this matchOleksandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.38

Lviv

1.05

Oleksandria

1.38

Oleksandria creates 31% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 101 away

0.81

creates per match

1.04

1.72

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Lviv

0.81

Oleksandria

1.04

allows per match

Lviv

1.72

Oleksandria

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lviv+0.00on par

Oleksandria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lviv ↓

Oleksandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lviv or draw

56%

Lviv or Oleksandria

73%

Draw or Oleksandria

71%

Winning margin

Lviv wins by 2+

11%

Oleksandria wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Lviv 1+ goals

65%

Lviv 2+ goals

28%

Lviv 3+ goals

9%

Oleksandria 1+ goals

75%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

40%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lviv (draw refunded)

39%

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lviv at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.72 · 54 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.29 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lviv attack 0.81 + Oleksandria defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.05

Oleksandria attack 1.04 + Lviv defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lviv scores more

29%

level

27%

Oleksandria scores more

44%

Oleksandria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

B. Myshenko↳ Y. Banada

14'

20'

54'

54'

58'

58'

M. Tretyakov← B. Myshenko

64'

Joel Bopesu

69'

Anton Shendrik

71'

A. Gordienko← A. Zaporozhan

72'

Matheus Iacovelli← Renan

83'

Jonatan Lima← V. Pryymak

87'

Alvaro↳ Welves

90'

Rafael Sabino

90'

V. Grytsuk← Y. Banada

Statistics

LvivOleksandria

Overview

4Corners4

Discipline

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

Premier League: Lviv 1–1 Oleksandria

Lviv and Oleksandria drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 29, 2020.

Goals: B. Myshenko (10'), Alvaro (87').

The match was played at Stadion Ukrajina in L'viv.

Lviv vs Oleksandria — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Premier League: Lviv 1–1 Oleksandria