Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Luxembourg vs Iceland — UEFA Nations League 2018

Luxembourg
Luxembourg
Preview
18:45
Iceland
Iceland
9/29/2026UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · 2
Big match
65%
Luxembourg
model favours
65%20%15%

Top-of-the-table clash — Luxembourg 4 vs Iceland 3

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Luxembourg65%
×Draw20%
Iceland15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luxembourg
2.06
Iceland
0.88

Luxembourg creates 134% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Luxembourg
1.31
Iceland
0.91

allows per match

Luxembourg
0.85
Iceland
2.82

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par
Iceland+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Iceland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw
85%
Luxembourg or Iceland
80%
Draw or Iceland
35%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+
40%
Iceland wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals
87%
Luxembourg 2+ goals
61%
Luxembourg 3+ goals
34%
Iceland 1+ goals
59%
Iceland 2+ goals
22%
Iceland 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)
81%
Iceland (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Iceland away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 1.31 + Iceland defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.06

Iceland attack 0.91 + Luxembourg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Luxembourg scores more
65%
level
20%
Iceland scores more
15%

Luxembourg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Luxembourg
Balanced
Iceland
Direct / counter-attacking
55%PossessionBiggest gap40%
81%Pass accuracy74%
11.4Shots9.3
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
LuxembourgIceland

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Luxembourg
WLWWL
Iceland
LLDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Luxembourg vs Iceland — Match Preview

Luxembourg face Iceland on September 29, 2026 in this UEFA Nations League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.