Luton 0–0 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Luton

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Utd

8/28/2021

Championship · Round 5Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton40%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Utd32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.13

Luton

1.29

Sheffield Utd

1.13

Luton creates 14% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 41 away

1.39

creates per match

1.32

0.93

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Luton

1.39

Sheffield Utd

1.32

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Sheffield Utd

1.19

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less

Sheffield Utd+0.07on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw

68%

Luton or Sheffield Utd

73%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

60%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

18%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

72%

Luton 2+ goals

37%

Luton 3+ goals

14%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

68%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

31%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

55%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sheffield Utd attack 1.32 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Luton scores more

40%

level

27%

Sheffield Utd scores more

32%

Luton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

B. Davies

Sheffield Utd · D

7.9

Match Events

6'

Kal Naismith

31'

J. Bogle← G. Baldock

46'

L. Freeman← C. Basham

47'

John Egan

68'

R. Brewster← O. McBurnie

83'

G. Rea← A. Campbell

84'

A. Muskwe← F. Onyedinma

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonSheffield

Overview

32%Possession68%

9Total Shots8

2Corners6

13Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots8

1On Target1

6Off Target6

2Blocked1

5Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

32%Possession68%

256Total Passes551

179Accurate Passes444

70%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0