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Luton vs Notts County — League One 2018

Luton
Luton
Preview
11:30
Notts County
Notts County
8/22/2026League OneLeague One · Round 2Kenilworth Road
Big match
52%
Luton
model favours
52%24%23%

Notts County score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Luton52%
×Draw24%
Notts County23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.66
Notts County
1.02

Luton creates 63% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 18 away

creates per match

Luton
2.04
Notts County
1.11

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Notts County
1.28

finishing

Luton+0.00on par
Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Notts County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Luton or draw
77%
Luton or Notts County
76%
Draw or Notts County
48%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
28%
Notts County wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
81%
Luton 2+ goals
49%
Luton 3+ goals
23%
Notts County 1+ goals
64%
Notts County 2+ goals
27%
Notts County 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
69%
Notts County (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Notts County away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 2.04 + Notts County defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.66

Notts County attack 1.11 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Luton scores more
52%
level
24%
Notts County scores more
23%

Luton at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 33% of Notts County’s matches
  • Luton fall short of their xG (1.5 vs 1.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Luton
DWWWW
County
LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Luton vs Notts County — Match Preview

Luton face Notts County on August 22, 2026 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Luton host Notts County at Kenilworth Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.