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Luton vs Norwich — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Norwich
Norwich
J. Collins 47' (pen)
M. Pearson 22'
G. Moncur 15'
E. Buendía 19' (pen)
12/2/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 15Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton45%
×Draw26%
Norwich28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.43
Norwich
1.07

Luton creates 34% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 60 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Norwich
1.22

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Norwich
1.47

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Norwich+0.11scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Luton or draw
72%
Luton or Norwich
74%
Draw or Norwich
55%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
22%
Norwich wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
76%
Luton 2+ goals
42%
Luton 3+ goals
17%
Norwich 1+ goals
66%
Norwich 2+ goals
29%
Norwich 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
62%
Norwich (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Norwich defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.43

Norwich attack 1.22 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Luton scores more
45%
level
26%
Norwich scores more
28%

Luton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
E. BuendíaNorwichNorwich · M
7.9

Match Events

15'
G. Moncur↳ K. Dewsbury-Hall
18'
James Shea
19'
E. BuendíaPenalty
22'
M. Pearson↳ R. Norrington-Davies
33'
Przemyslaw Płacheta
45'
J. Bree← M. Cranie
47'
J. CollinsPenalty
70'
J. Morrell← G. Moncur
72'
M. Vrančić← A. Tettey
81'
C. Zimmermann← E. Buendía
85'
Christoph Zimmermann
85'
T. Omotoye← J. Martin
90+4'
D. Potts← K. Dewsbury-Hall

Possession

32%Luton

Shots

10Luton

Pass accuracy

44%Luton

Statistics

LutonNorwich
Overview
32%Possession68%
10Total Shots11
4Corners9
9Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots11
5On Target4
3Off Target4
2Blocked3
6Inside Box5
4Outside Box6
Passing
32%Possession68%
304Total Passes668
207Accurate Passes572
68%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Luton 3 – 1 Norwich

Luton beat Norwich 3-1 in Championship on December 2, 2020.

Goals: G. Moncur (15'), E. Buendía (19' pen), M. Pearson (22'), J. Collins (47' pen).

Norwich controlled possession (68%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.