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Luton vs Huddersfield — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huddersfield
Huddersfield
10/2/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Luton46%
×Draw27%
Huddersfield27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.42
Huddersfield
1.02

Luton creates 39% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 9 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Huddersfield
1.11

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Huddersfield
1.44

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Huddersfield+0.11scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Huddersfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw
73%
Luton or Huddersfield
73%
Draw or Huddersfield
54%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
22%
Huddersfield wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
76%
Luton 2+ goals
41%
Luton 3+ goals
17%
Huddersfield 1+ goals
64%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
27%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
63%
Huddersfield (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Huddersfield defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Huddersfield attack 1.11 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Luton scores more
46%
level
27%
Huddersfield scores more
27%

Luton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
S. SlugaLutonLuton · G
7.3

Match Events

32'
Glen Rea
42'
Sorba Thomas
58'
Tom Lees
66'
C. Jerome← H. Cornick
73'
H. Lansbury← J. Clark
73'
D. Holmes← D. Sinani
80'
Naby Sarr
83'
F. Campbell← D. Ward
87'
Carlos Gomes← L. Berry
89'
Cameron Jerome

Possession

56%Luton

Shots

14Luton

Pass accuracy

53%Luton

Statistics

LutonHuddersfield
Overview
56%Possession44%
14Total Shots9
6Corners4
10Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots9
3On Target2
5Off Target6
6Blocked1
9Inside Box3
5Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
413Total Passes328
284Accurate Passes201
69%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3
3Offsides2

Championship: Luton 0–0 Huddersfield

Luton and Huddersfield drew 0-0 in Championship on October 2, 2021.

Luton controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.