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Luton vs Huddersfield — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Huddersfield
Huddersfield
J. Collins 11'
N. Sarr 74'
2/6/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 28Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Luton47%
×Draw27%
Huddersfield26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.44
Huddersfield
1.01

Luton creates 43% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Huddersfield
1.08

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Huddersfield
1.49

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Huddersfield+0.12scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Huddersfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw
74%
Luton or Huddersfield
73%
Draw or Huddersfield
53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
23%
Huddersfield wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
76%
Luton 2+ goals
42%
Luton 3+ goals
18%
Huddersfield 1+ goals
64%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
27%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
64%
Huddersfield (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.49 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Huddersfield defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Huddersfield attack 1.08 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more
47%
level
27%
Huddersfield scores more
26%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
H. CornickLutonLuton · F
7.5

Match Events

7'
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
11'
J. Collins↳ H. Cornick
23'
Lewis O'Brien
46'
R. Aarons← I. Mbenza
53'
Pipa
62'
Jonathan Hogg
67'
A. Pritchard← Pipa Ávila
72'
G. Rea← L. Berry
74'
N. Sarr
83'
T. Ince← H. Cornick
87'
K. Naismith← J. Clark
90'
Harry Toffolo
90+5'
Álex Vallejo← A. Pritchard
90+5'
S. High← D. Holmes

Possession

40%Luton

Shots

13Luton

Pass accuracy

44%Luton

Statistics

LutonHuddersfield
Overview
40%Possession60%
13Total Shots7
7Corners6
14Fouls18
Shots
13Total Shots7
4On Target2
6Off Target4
3Blocked1
8Inside Box3
5Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
308Total Passes445
179Accurate Passes324
58%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls18
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1

Championship: Luton 1–1 Huddersfield

Luton and Huddersfield drew 1-1 in Championship on February 6, 2021.

Goals: J. Collins (11'), N. Sarr (74').

Huddersfield controlled possession (60%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.