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Luton vs Huddersfield — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Huddersfield
Huddersfield
A. Shinnie 66'
J. Collins 57' (pen)
K. Ahearne-Grant 47'
8/31/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 6Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Luton48%
×Draw27%
Huddersfield25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.44
Huddersfield
0.95

Luton creates 52% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Huddersfield
0.96

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Huddersfield
1.49

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Huddersfield+0.12scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Huddersfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw
75%
Luton or Huddersfield
73%
Draw or Huddersfield
52%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
24%
Huddersfield wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
76%
Luton 2+ goals
42%
Luton 3+ goals
18%
Huddersfield 1+ goals
61%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
25%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
66%
Huddersfield (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Huddersfield defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Huddersfield attack 0.96 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Luton scores more
48%
level
27%
Huddersfield scores more
25%

Luton at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
A. ShinnieLutonLuton · M
8.6

Match Events

47'
K. Ahearne-Grant↳ T. Kongolo
52'
I. Brown← J. Butterfield
57'
A. Pritchard← F. Campbell
57'
J. CollinsPenalty
63'
E. Kachunga← R. van La Parra
66'
A. Shinnie↳ H. Cornick
77'
S. Mounié← J. Hogg
82'
Trevoh Chalobah
84'
Isaiah Brown
87'
P. Ruddock← H. Cornick
88'
James Collins
88'
Adama Diakhaby
90+3'
L. Jones← K. LuaLua

Possession

42%Luton

Shots

13Luton

Pass accuracy

47%Luton

Statistics

LutonHuddersfield
Overview
42%Possession58%
13Total Shots13
6Corners9
18Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots13
4On Target3
6Off Target5
3Blocked5
7Inside Box8
6Outside Box5
Passing
42%Possession58%
319Total Passes431
233Accurate Passes350
73%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Luton vs Huddersfield

Luton beat Huddersfield 2-1 in Championship on August 31, 2019.

Goals: K. Ahearne-Grant (47'), J. Collins (57' pen), A. Shinnie (66').

Huddersfield controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.