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Lugo vs Zamora — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Lugo
Lugo
Preview
16:00
Zamora
Zamora
2/6/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Estadio Anxo Carro
38%
Lugo
model favours
38%29%33%

Lugo score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Lugo38%
×Draw29%
Zamora33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lugo
1.19
Zamora
1.08

Lugo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 69 away

creates per match

Lugo
1.09
Zamora
1.04

allows per match

Lugo
1.12
Zamora
1.28

finishing

Lugo+0.00on par
Zamora+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugo ↓

Zamora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lugo or draw
67%
Lugo or Zamora
71%
Draw or Zamora
62%

Winning margin

Lugo wins by 2+
16%
Zamora wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lugo 1+ goals
70%
Lugo 2+ goals
33%
Lugo 3+ goals
12%
Zamora 1+ goals
66%
Zamora 2+ goals
29%
Zamora 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lugo (draw refunded)
54%
Zamora (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.12 · 57 matches

Zamora away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugo attack 1.09 + Zamora defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Zamora attack 1.04 + Lugo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lugo scores more
38%
level
29%
Zamora scores more
33%

Lugo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lugo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • When Lugo score first, they win 88% of the time
  • Both teams score in only 19% of Lugo’s matches
  • Both teams score in only 20% of Zamora’s matches
  • 70% of Zamora’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Zamora have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • 68% of Lugo’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Lugo
DWLWL
Zamora
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lugo vs Zamora — Match Preview

Lugo face Zamora on February 6, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lugo host Zamora at Estadio Anxo Carro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.