Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lugo vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Lugo
Lugo
Preview
16:00
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
3/7/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Estadio Anxo Carro
Big match
40%
Lugo
model favours
40%29%31%

Lugo score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Lugo40%
×Draw29%
Unionistas de Salamanca31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lugo
1.18
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.02

Lugo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 106 away

creates per match

Lugo
1.09
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.91

allows per match

Lugo
1.12
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.27

finishing

Lugo+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugo ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lugo or draw
69%
Lugo or Unionistas de Salamanca
71%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
60%

Winning margin

Lugo wins by 2+
17%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lugo 1+ goals
69%
Lugo 2+ goals
33%
Lugo 3+ goals
12%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
64%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
27%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lugo (draw refunded)
56%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.12 · 57 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugo attack 1.09 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Lugo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lugo scores more
40%
level
29%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
31%

Lugo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lugo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • When Lugo score first, they win 88% of the time
  • Both teams score in only 19% of Lugo’s matches
  • 68% of Lugo’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Lugo
DWLWL
Salamanca
WDWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lugo host Unionistas de Salamanca

March 7, 2027: Lugo take on Unionistas de Salamanca in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lugo host Unionistas de Salamanca at Estadio Anxo Carro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.