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Lugo vs Real Avilés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Lugo
Lugo
Preview
16:00
Real Avilés
Real Avilés
1/24/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Estadio Anxo Carro
39%
Lugo
model favours
39%24%37%

Lugo score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lugo39%
×Draw24%
Real Avilés37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lugo
1.54
Real Avilés
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Lugo
1.09
Real Avilés
1.84

allows per match

Lugo
1.12
Real Avilés
2.00

finishing

Lugo+0.00on par
Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugo ↓

Real Avilés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lugo or draw
63%
Lugo or Real Avilés
76%
Draw or Real Avilés
61%

Winning margin

Lugo wins by 2+
19%
Real Avilés wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lugo 1+ goals
79%
Lugo 2+ goals
45%
Lugo 3+ goals
20%
Real Avilés 1+ goals
77%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
43%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lugo (draw refunded)
52%
Real Avilés (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.12 · 57 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugo attack 1.09 + Real Avilés defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Real Avilés attack 1.84 + Lugo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lugo scores more
39%
level
24%
Real Avilés scores more
37%

Lugo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lugo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • When Lugo score first, they win 88% of the time
  • Both teams score in only 19% of Lugo’s matches
  • 68% of Lugo’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Real Avilés win just 10% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Lugo
DWLWL
Avilés
DLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lugo vs Real Avilés — Match Preview

Lugo face Real Avilés on January 24, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lugo host Real Avilés at Estadio Anxo Carro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.