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Lugo vs Pontevedra — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Lugo
Lugo
Preview
16:00
Pontevedra
Pontevedra
2/21/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Estadio Anxo Carro
40%
Lugo
model favours
40%28%32%

Lugo score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Lugo40%
×Draw28%
Pontevedra32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lugo
1.22
Pontevedra
1.06

Lugo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 65 away

creates per match

Lugo
1.09
Pontevedra
1.00

allows per match

Lugo
1.12
Pontevedra
1.35

finishing

Lugo+0.00on par
Pontevedra+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugo ↓

Pontevedra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lugo or draw
68%
Lugo or Pontevedra
72%
Draw or Pontevedra
60%

Winning margin

Lugo wins by 2+
17%
Pontevedra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lugo 1+ goals
70%
Lugo 2+ goals
34%
Lugo 3+ goals
12%
Pontevedra 1+ goals
65%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
29%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lugo (draw refunded)
56%
Pontevedra (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.12 · 57 matches

Pontevedra away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugo attack 1.09 + Pontevedra defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Pontevedra attack 1.00 + Lugo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lugo scores more
40%
level
28%
Pontevedra scores more
32%

Lugo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lugo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • When Lugo score first, they win 88% of the time
  • Both teams score in only 19% of Lugo’s matches
  • 68% of Lugo’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Lugo
DWLWL
Pontevedra
DLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lugo face Pontevedra (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Lugo hosting Pontevedra. Match starts February 21, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lugo host Pontevedra at Estadio Anxo Carro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.