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Lugo vs Cacereño — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Lugo
Lugo
Preview
15:00
Cacereño
Cacereño
4/25/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Estadio Anxo Carro
37%
Lugo
model favours
37%28%35%

Lugo score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lugo37%
×Draw28%
Cacereño35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lugo
1.21
Cacereño
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Lugo
1.09
Cacereño
1.21

allows per match

Lugo
1.12
Cacereño
1.32

finishing

Lugo+0.00on par
Cacereño+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugo ↓

Cacereño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lugo or draw
65%
Lugo or Cacereño
72%
Draw or Cacereño
63%

Winning margin

Lugo wins by 2+
16%
Cacereño wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lugo 1+ goals
70%
Lugo 2+ goals
34%
Lugo 3+ goals
12%
Cacereño 1+ goals
69%
Cacereño 2+ goals
33%
Cacereño 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lugo (draw refunded)
51%
Cacereño (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.12 · 57 matches

Cacereño away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugo attack 1.09 + Cacereño defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cacereño attack 1.21 + Lugo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lugo scores more
37%
level
28%
Cacereño scores more
35%

Lugo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lugo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • When Lugo score first, they win 88% of the time
  • Both teams score in only 19% of Lugo’s matches
  • 68% of Lugo’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Lugo
DWLWL
Cacereño
LWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lugo vs Cacereño — Match Preview

Lugo face Cacereño on April 25, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lugo host Cacereño at Estadio Anxo Carro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.