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Lugo vs Athletic Club II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Lugo
Lugo
Preview
15:00
Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
4/11/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadio Anxo Carro
41%
Lugo
model favours
41%28%31%

Lugo score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Lugo41%
×Draw28%
Athletic Club II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lugo
1.27
Athletic Club II
1.07

Lugo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

creates per match

Lugo
1.09
Athletic Club II
1.02

allows per match

Lugo
1.12
Athletic Club II
1.45

finishing

Lugo+0.00on par
Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugo ↓

Athletic Club II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lugo or draw
69%
Lugo or Athletic Club II
72%
Draw or Athletic Club II
59%

Winning margin

Lugo wins by 2+
18%
Athletic Club II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lugo 1+ goals
72%
Lugo 2+ goals
36%
Lugo 3+ goals
14%
Athletic Club II 1+ goals
66%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
29%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lugo (draw refunded)
57%
Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugo at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.12 · 57 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugo attack 1.09 + Athletic Club II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Athletic Club II attack 1.02 + Lugo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lugo scores more
41%
level
28%
Athletic Club II scores more
31%

Lugo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lugo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • When Lugo score first, they win 88% of the time
  • Both teams score in only 19% of Lugo’s matches
  • Athletic Club II raise their game against the top half — 34% wins vs the upper half, only 33% vs the lower
  • 68% of Lugo’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Lugo
DWLWL
II
LWLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lugo face Athletic Club II (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Lugo hosting Athletic Club II. Match starts April 11, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lugo host Athletic Club II at Estadio Anxo Carro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.