Ludwigsfelde vs Union Sandersdorf

Ludwigsfelde

CANC

12:00

Union Sandersdorf

6/6/2021

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 33Waldstadion Ludwigsfelde Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Ludwigsfelde37%

×Draw26%

Union Sandersdorf37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudwigsfeldeExpected goals in this matchUnion Sandersdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.36

Ludwigsfelde

1.35

Union Sandersdorf

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 81 away

1.10

creates per match

1.19

1.54

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde

1.10

Union Sandersdorf

1.19

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde

1.54

Union Sandersdorf

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Union Sandersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

Union Sandersdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw

63%

Ludwigsfelde or Union Sandersdorf

74%

Draw or Union Sandersdorf

63%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+

17%

Union Sandersdorf wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals

74%

Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals

39%

Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals

15%

Union Sandersdorf 1+ goals

74%

Union Sandersdorf 2+ goals

39%

Union Sandersdorf 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)

50%

Union Sandersdorf (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

Union Sandersdorf away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.10 + Union Sandersdorf defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Union Sandersdorf attack 1.19 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more

37%

level

26%

Union Sandersdorf scores more

37%

Ludwigsfelde at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ludwigsfelde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff