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Ludwigsfelde vs Einheit Rudolstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Einheit Rudolstadt
Einheit Rudolstadt
9/10/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 5Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Ludwigsfelde41%
×Draw24%
Einheit Rudolstadt35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludwigsfelde
1.61
Einheit Rudolstadt
1.47

Ludwigsfelde creates 10% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 82 away

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.10
Einheit Rudolstadt
1.40

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.54
Einheit Rudolstadt
2.13

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par
Einheit Rudolstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

Einheit Rudolstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw
65%
Ludwigsfelde or Einheit Rudolstadt
76%
Draw or Einheit Rudolstadt
59%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
21%
Einheit Rudolstadt wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
80%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
48%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
22%
Einheit Rudolstadt 1+ goals
77%
Einheit Rudolstadt 2+ goals
43%
Einheit Rudolstadt 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
54%
Einheit Rudolstadt (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

Einheit Rudolstadt away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.10 + Einheit Rudolstadt defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.61

Einheit Rudolstadt attack 1.40 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more
41%
level
24%
Einheit Rudolstadt scores more
35%

Ludwigsfelde at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ludwigsfelde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Ludwigsfelde 3–3 Einheit Rudolstadt

Ludwigsfelde and Einheit Rudolstadt drew 3-3 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Ludwigsfelde.