Ludogorets 1–1 Levski Sofia: Result & Stats

Ludogorets

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Levski Sofia

Erick Marcus 34'

Everton Bala 79'

5/3/2025

First League · Championship Round - 2Huvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Ludogorets41%

×Draw28%

Levski Sofia31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudogoretsExpected goals in this matchLevski Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.08

Ludogorets

1.27

Levski Sofia

1.08

Ludogorets creates 18% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

1.93

creates per match

1.41

0.76

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Ludogorets

1.93

Levski Sofia

1.41

allows per match

Ludogorets

0.76

Levski Sofia

0.62

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

Ludogorets+0.16scores more

Levski Sofia+0.45scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Levski Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw

69%

Ludogorets or Levski Sofia

72%

Draw or Levski Sofia

59%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+

18%

Levski Sofia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals

72%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

36%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

14%

Levski Sofia 1+ goals

66%

Levski Sofia 2+ goals

29%

Levski Sofia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

56%

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.76 · 23 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.62 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 1.93 + Levski Sofia defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.27

Levski Sofia attack 1.41 + Ludogorets defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ludogorets scores more

41%

level

28%

Levski Sofia scores more

31%

Ludogorets at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

M. Petkov

Levski Sofia · M

7.9

Match Events

34'

Erick Marcus

45'

Carlos Ohene

46'

M. Sangaré← Fábio Lima

56'

J. Piotrowski← Deroy Duarte

56'

Caio Vidal← Erick Marcus

56'

D. Gropper← Son

74'

A. Camara← E. Rodríguez

77'

79'

83'

83'

90+2'

F. Gigov← K. Duah

90'

Aldair← Jawad El Jemili

90'

H. Fadiga← Everton Bala

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LudogoretsLevski

Overview

50%Possession50%

5Total Shots17

0.19Expected Goals (xG)1.29

1Corners12

14Fouls7

Shots

5Total Shots17

2On Target7

1Off Target5

2Blocked4

1Inside Box6

4Outside Box11

Passing

50%Possession50%

485Total Passes451

429Accurate Passes405

88%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1