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Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948 — First League 2026

Ludogorets
Ludogorets
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
3/3/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Huvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Ludogorets57%
×Draw24%
CSKA 194819%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets
1.73
CSKA 1948
0.90

Ludogorets creates 92% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 105 away

creates per match

Ludogorets
2.38
CSKA 1948
1.22

allows per match

Ludogorets
0.57
CSKA 1948
1.09

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par
CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

CSKA 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw
81%
Ludogorets or CSKA 1948
76%
Draw or CSKA 1948
43%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+
32%
CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals
82%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
52%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
25%
CSKA 1948 1+ goals
59%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
23%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)
75%
CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.57 · 138 matches

CSKA 1948 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 2.38 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.73

CSKA 1948 attack 1.22 + Ludogorets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ludogorets scores more
57%
level
24%
CSKA 1948 scores more
19%

Ludogorets at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948

Ludogorets beat CSKA 1948 2-0 in First League on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Huvepharma Arena in Razgrad.