Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna — First League 2018

Ludogorets
Ludogorets
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
12/13/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Huvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Ludogorets59%
×Draw23%
Cherno More Varna17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets
1.74
Cherno More Varna
0.81

Ludogorets creates 115% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 136 away

creates per match

Ludogorets
2.38
Cherno More Varna
1.06

allows per match

Ludogorets
0.57
Cherno More Varna
1.10

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par
Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Cherno More Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw
83%
Ludogorets or Cherno More Varna
77%
Draw or Cherno More Varna
41%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+
34%
Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals
82%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
52%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
25%
Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
56%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
19%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)
78%
Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.57 · 138 matches

Cherno More Varna away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 2.38 + Cherno More Varna defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.74

Cherno More Varna attack 1.06 + Ludogorets defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ludogorets scores more
59%
level
23%
Cherno More Varna scores more
17%

Ludogorets at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Ludogorets 1–0 Cherno More Varna

Ludogorets beat Cherno More Varna 1-0 in First League on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Huvepharma Arena in Razgrad.