Ludogorets 1–1 Cherno More Varna: Result & Stats

Ludogorets

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cherno More Varna

J. Świerczok 84'

F. Aktaou 43'

12/7/2019

First League · Round 19Ludogorets Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Ludogorets60%

×Draw25%

Cherno More Varna16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudogoretsExpected goals in this matchCherno More Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.67

Ludogorets

1.59

Cherno More Varna

0.67

Ludogorets creates 137% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.28

creates per match

0.63

0.71

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Ludogorets

2.28

Cherno More Varna

0.63

allows per match

Ludogorets

0.71

Cherno More Varna

0.91

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Ludogorets-0.17scores less

Cherno More Varna-0.03on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Cherno More Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw

84%

Ludogorets or Cherno More Varna

75%

Draw or Cherno More Varna

40%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+

32%

Cherno More Varna wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals

80%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

47%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

21%

Cherno More Varna 1+ goals

49%

Cherno More Varna 2+ goals

15%

Cherno More Varna 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

79%

Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.71 · 9 matches

Cherno More Varna away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.91 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 2.28 + Cherno More Varna defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cherno More Varna attack 0.63 + Ludogorets defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ludogorets scores more

60%

level

25%

Cherno More Varna scores more

16%

Ludogorets at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Mohamed Bukasi

43'

F. Aktaou

46'

A. N'Dongala← Rodrigo

49'

E. Yanchev← M. Boukassi

62'

J. Świerczok← A. Andrianantenaina

67'

M. Tchibota← J. Lukoki

69'

Dimitris Chantakias

75'

Viktor Popov

82'

S. Manolev← Wanderson

84'

J. Świerczok

86'

Daniel Dimov

88'

Jordão Cardoso← F. Aktaou

90'

Cicinho

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LudogoretsCherno

Overview

72%Possession28%

13Total Shots4

17Corners0

16Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots4

8On Target2

5Off Target2

Passing

72%Possession28%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

16Fouls13

0Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

4Offsides2